Bellator 105 is set to go down later this evening and as per the status quo of the two prior events held here in New Mexico, the undercard will be loaded with local talent. The preliminary portion of Bellator MMA fight cards have become a very large stage for fighters to take the next step outside of fighting within the state’s regional scene. From Holly Holm to Lenny Lovato Jr., the promotion has hosted several of our most prominent athletes.
The theme ringing around this event however is the fact that almost every match featuring a local is arguably placing our New Mexico fighter into a underdog role. In all, there will be six local match-ups on tonight’s fight card and five of them are being considered fights in which our local enters in as the underdog to win the bout.
Tapology.com is a site with an interactive fan forum and message board; the site is also home to a system where fans can actually vote on who they believe will win bouts. This is completely unique in that they have this prediction option for small events from regional fight cards to the more popular UFC and Bellator events. For this Bellator 105 event, the fans have spoken (see it here) and it seems that many fight fans believe the New Mexico competitors are slightly unmatched.
The only local who is favored in the fan’s predictions is Judgement MMA’s Adrian Cruz who is favored to beat opponent Jesse Brock by a 85% to 15% margin. 61% of the fans who believe Cruz will win think he will take the victory home via judge’s decision and only 11% think he can win via submission. The fans who will be taking their chances with Jesse Brock think that if he does win, it will be 71% of a chance that he earns the judge’s decision in Cruz’s hometown.
The biggest disparity in fan prediction comes in the bout featuring Josh Lanier versus Volkan Oezdemir. The Lovato Total Fitness fighter has received a mere 2% of the fan vote to the 98% if favor of Oezdemir. This discrepancy is easy to explain as Oezdemir is an undefeated, young prospect and Lanier is in the role of veteran with a less than imposing record. Lanier’s talents aren’t going unnoticed by the small fan support however as fans think Lanier’s chances of victory comes in the form of a decision (57%).
Another fighter with a large disparity in fan belief is Lutrell’s MMA fighter Steve Garcia who is fighting hot prospect Shawn Bunch. According to the fans on Tapology, Garcia is predicted by only 6% of fans to win to Bunch’s 95%. A big part of that could be because Garcia doesn’t have the hype of Bunch or the professional experience. The positive for fans who believe in Garcia is that nearly half, 48% of fans think Garcia can actually knock Bunch out. The contrast is that of the 94% voting for Bunch, 79% feel he will take Garcia to the scorecards to beat him there and only 3% pick Bunch catching the submission.
It seems as experience plays a huge role in fan predictions as FIT NHB’s Frank Baca will give up experience fighting in the bigger promotions to opponent Luis Alberto Nogueira. Fans voted 77% to 23% in favor of the Brazilian fighter and 67% of those believe Nogueira will take the judge’s decision. While Baca was outvoted about 4-to-1, the fans who are behind him forecast that it will be 71% likely he will get the win with a decision to only 8% who think he can pull out a submission.
The closest fight in the voter’s minds is the bout between Rocky Ramirez and Eddie Larrea where Larrea holds the 51% to 49% razor thin advantage. After all, Larrea is a Welterweight and Ramirez is a hard-hitting Middleweight. That fact comes to light by the fans in favor of Ramirez believing that Ramirez has a 27% chance of getting the knockout and 49% chance of winning a decision. Larrea in the contrast has 64% of the fans believing he will win under the impression he will lock in a fight ending submission.
Tapology has the bout between Des Green and Angelo Sanchez very lopsided as well. Little known fact about Des Green is they he defeated UFC veteran and former Jackson’s MMA fighter Henry Martinez earlier this year. He will go into his bout with Sanchez as a 78% to 22% favorite. 88% of those picking Green believe he will take home a decision while the Sanchez supporters are 44% sure that Sanchez will catch a submission.
What do you think fight fans? How do you see the odds for these fights and do you feel like any of our locals aren’t getting the credit deserved to possibly be favored in odds in their respective bouts?